Last June Weekend 2021 / Pine Mt Potential

Weekend Reports for Sunday and Monday with Ayvri Links, photos, and weather posted as replies further below at:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11103 (Pine Sunday)
and
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11123 (Sage Monday)
and
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11124 (Pine Monday)
________________________________________
Sunday Morning Update
The forecast continues to evolve favorably for mid-day flights back to Santa Barbara and the beach from Pine today. I suspect Carter and Longcor will want to tag a turn point first. According to Windy some W to NW flow tries to push through late in the day but earlier it is mostly from the E to NE with convergence in the Pine, Lockwood, and Watershed Divide areas.
The surface temperature is hot. Ojai is forecasted to hit 104F while the Antelope Valley is projecting 110F. The 12K temperature is about 50F, so the lapse rate is ballistic. The humidity is low but the NAM Skew-t forecast soundings are calling for thin stratocumulus over launch up near 15 to 16K, thickening some with cloudbase lowering toward the lower teens later in the day.
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Saturday Afternoon Logistics update for Pine on Sunday
Confirming the meet time for Sunday’s Pine adventure
9 am roll from Viola Fields in Carpinteria.
As of mid-afternoon on Saturday Pine continues to look good for Sunday.
Currently we have 2 crew, myself (Tom Truax) and Andy Switzer
Pilots who have raised their hand and are somewhat confirmed are:
Patrick Switzer (Andy’s brother) Jeff Longcor, Carter Crowe, Dave Patterson, Brian Kaiserauer, and Hopper Pennington, which adds up to 6 pilots plus 2 crew for a total of 8 bodies
We strive to go by the old Team Topa motto that there is always room for one more, but the Eagle Van is out of town supporting pilots elsewhere so we may need to manage with smaller vehicles. As of now we have room for at least a couple more, and if someone has a larger vehicle then we can fit more, or with enough notice we can solicit more crew.
Hooper is coming from LA and will meet us at Nordhoff HS about 9:40-ish
____________________________________
Saturday Morning Update
Pilots are going to Pine on Sunday, departing Carpinteria at 9 am.
We have one or 2 crew (I’m one of the crew) so should have room for everyone. Please check in so we can confirm logistics. Will clarify a meet location after we gage the group size but likely Viola Fields. If you are coming from SB you might want leave vehicles at East Beach or Summerland? If coming from LA you might want to meet in Ventura in case you are returning via Hwy 126. Flights back to the beach also look like a reasonably possibility.
Ojai is looking very good today, but the road is closed so you would need to hike and it is hot.
Pine looks promising for flights back to the beach today, but the conditions might be too advanced for many pilots. Sunday is calling for less wind and higher thermal tops.
The local SB front range mountains don’t look soarable today but likely launchable from the lower launches like the Skyport by mid-day. The OTB laminar venturi compression flow over the ridge is currently gusting into the mid-20s from the north at La Cumbre Peak.
Sage will likely work at the end of the day?
_________________________________
Friday Evening Update
I’m available to crew at Pine tomorrow (Saturday) if there are a few pilots interested in launching mid-day between noon to 3 PM with the aspiration flying south (toward Ojai or the beach). It’s possible that you might need to use the north launch, but I think the south launch will be cycling up mid-day. Suggested departure from Carpinteria sometime between 9:45 to 10:30-ish.
Sunday looks like more cloud development and higher thermals (mid-teens). Saturday looks a little dryer and lower (lower teens) but has a better tailwind going toward SB. On Saturday, the convergence seems to be over Pine or possibly even further south, then on Sunday the north flow subsides, and the center of the lift appears to shift north to its more typical location over Lockwood Valley.
The lapse rate is robust so expect the mid-day thermals to be big and strong, but not as much wind-shear turbulence that we often deal with flying SB on north wind days.
_____________________________________
Last Weekend in June, 2021 / Friday mid-day look at the weekend
The forecast for Pine this weekend is evolving favorably.
Saturday is showing some north flow up higher which should balance against the seasonal south flow drawn toward the inland heat low and offer convergence to big altitude somewhere close to launch. The north flow and high altitude will likely permit flights back to the beach. There is more north wind late in the day, which can be good for your glide toward the ocean if you are established high, but there is a possibility it could come from the north at launch altitude. If you schedule a late day launch you might need to consider taking off from the North Side. The mid-day thermals will be strong, but I wouldn’t expect shear turbulence like we sometimes encounter in SB on north days.
Sunday’s altitude is looking even more impressive with cloudbase in the mid to upper teens. Little wind aloft on Sunday could mean the convergence is pulled back toward Lockwood Valley. Pine has a inclination to draw from the south...
Ojai should work also but the LPNF website states
Permits for the Nordhoff Ridge Road (5N08) are temporarily suspended until further notice. We apologize for this inconvience. Check back after July 15.
The local SB mountains will likely be launchable but expect sled rides. The coastal cliffs also look doubtful. Elings is forecasted to be flyable but weak.
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11103 (Pine Sunday)
and
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11123 (Sage Monday)
and
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4023#p11124 (Pine Monday)
________________________________________
Sunday Morning Update
The forecast continues to evolve favorably for mid-day flights back to Santa Barbara and the beach from Pine today. I suspect Carter and Longcor will want to tag a turn point first. According to Windy some W to NW flow tries to push through late in the day but earlier it is mostly from the E to NE with convergence in the Pine, Lockwood, and Watershed Divide areas.
The surface temperature is hot. Ojai is forecasted to hit 104F while the Antelope Valley is projecting 110F. The 12K temperature is about 50F, so the lapse rate is ballistic. The humidity is low but the NAM Skew-t forecast soundings are calling for thin stratocumulus over launch up near 15 to 16K, thickening some with cloudbase lowering toward the lower teens later in the day.
_____________________________________________________
Saturday Afternoon Logistics update for Pine on Sunday
Confirming the meet time for Sunday’s Pine adventure
9 am roll from Viola Fields in Carpinteria.
As of mid-afternoon on Saturday Pine continues to look good for Sunday.
Currently we have 2 crew, myself (Tom Truax) and Andy Switzer
Pilots who have raised their hand and are somewhat confirmed are:
Patrick Switzer (Andy’s brother) Jeff Longcor, Carter Crowe, Dave Patterson, Brian Kaiserauer, and Hopper Pennington, which adds up to 6 pilots plus 2 crew for a total of 8 bodies
We strive to go by the old Team Topa motto that there is always room for one more, but the Eagle Van is out of town supporting pilots elsewhere so we may need to manage with smaller vehicles. As of now we have room for at least a couple more, and if someone has a larger vehicle then we can fit more, or with enough notice we can solicit more crew.
Hooper is coming from LA and will meet us at Nordhoff HS about 9:40-ish
____________________________________
Saturday Morning Update
Pilots are going to Pine on Sunday, departing Carpinteria at 9 am.
We have one or 2 crew (I’m one of the crew) so should have room for everyone. Please check in so we can confirm logistics. Will clarify a meet location after we gage the group size but likely Viola Fields. If you are coming from SB you might want leave vehicles at East Beach or Summerland? If coming from LA you might want to meet in Ventura in case you are returning via Hwy 126. Flights back to the beach also look like a reasonably possibility.
Ojai is looking very good today, but the road is closed so you would need to hike and it is hot.
Pine looks promising for flights back to the beach today, but the conditions might be too advanced for many pilots. Sunday is calling for less wind and higher thermal tops.
The local SB front range mountains don’t look soarable today but likely launchable from the lower launches like the Skyport by mid-day. The OTB laminar venturi compression flow over the ridge is currently gusting into the mid-20s from the north at La Cumbre Peak.
Sage will likely work at the end of the day?
_________________________________
Friday Evening Update
I’m available to crew at Pine tomorrow (Saturday) if there are a few pilots interested in launching mid-day between noon to 3 PM with the aspiration flying south (toward Ojai or the beach). It’s possible that you might need to use the north launch, but I think the south launch will be cycling up mid-day. Suggested departure from Carpinteria sometime between 9:45 to 10:30-ish.
Sunday looks like more cloud development and higher thermals (mid-teens). Saturday looks a little dryer and lower (lower teens) but has a better tailwind going toward SB. On Saturday, the convergence seems to be over Pine or possibly even further south, then on Sunday the north flow subsides, and the center of the lift appears to shift north to its more typical location over Lockwood Valley.
The lapse rate is robust so expect the mid-day thermals to be big and strong, but not as much wind-shear turbulence that we often deal with flying SB on north wind days.
_____________________________________
Last Weekend in June, 2021 / Friday mid-day look at the weekend
The forecast for Pine this weekend is evolving favorably.
Saturday is showing some north flow up higher which should balance against the seasonal south flow drawn toward the inland heat low and offer convergence to big altitude somewhere close to launch. The north flow and high altitude will likely permit flights back to the beach. There is more north wind late in the day, which can be good for your glide toward the ocean if you are established high, but there is a possibility it could come from the north at launch altitude. If you schedule a late day launch you might need to consider taking off from the North Side. The mid-day thermals will be strong, but I wouldn’t expect shear turbulence like we sometimes encounter in SB on north days.
Sunday’s altitude is looking even more impressive with cloudbase in the mid to upper teens. Little wind aloft on Sunday could mean the convergence is pulled back toward Lockwood Valley. Pine has a inclination to draw from the south...
Ojai should work also but the LPNF website states
Permits for the Nordhoff Ridge Road (5N08) are temporarily suspended until further notice. We apologize for this inconvience. Check back after July 15.
The local SB mountains will likely be launchable but expect sled rides. The coastal cliffs also look doubtful. Elings is forecasted to be flyable but weak.