Sunday 2/21/2021

Sunday Morning Update
The winds aloft forecast for SBA is calling for Light and Variable up through 6K this morning, but it is still blowing stiff across the ridge line from the NW. The north wind inhibited the morning inversion, so it is already warmer in the foothills compared to the ridgeline. From a thermal perspective we should be able to launch early, but if you want to get off at EJ rather than the lower launches you will need to wait for the north wind to block (which I expect it will). On Thursday it was launchable earlier down lower and by 10:30 up at ridgeline (EJ). Thursday had less wind OTB at dawn but more wind in the forecast. Thursday’s temperature profile was similar to what we are seeing this morning.
Our local ocean is calm at dawn out through mid-channel, but it is currently blowing stiff from the NE at Anacapa Island and stiff from the NW around Point Conception.
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Saturday night look at Sunday 2/21/2021
Expect Sunday to be somewhat similar to Thursday with some variation. The offshore Santa Anna drainage down the Santa Clara river is more pronounced and persistent than it was on Thursday, so we are course limited eastbound. You might be able to reach the Topa Bluffs, but Santa Paula Ridge looks iffy and it looks like a day to avoid the Santa Clara River.
Sunday’s lapse rate is looking a little stronger compared to Thursday. Surface temps are forecasted to be 70ish in SB and low 70s in Ojai while the 6K temp is forecasted to be in the low 40s, so a tad warmer on the surface and a tad cooler at 6K. On paper the altitude looks a bit better, but we got to 6K in SB on Thursday, which was better than the forecast, so I suspect Sunday’s altitude in SB will be similar to Thursday? The altitude in Ojai also looks a better on Sunday, perhaps 7Kish? We were only getting to 6K in Ojai on Thursday. On Thursday the lapse rate faded some in the afternoon as the upper atmosphere warmed, but on Sunday there is less warming of the upper air and the lapse rate holds up better, but it is typical in SB to get higher late morning through mid-day compared to later in the day. I suspect the altitude I Ojai will be good late in the day.
Sunday has a much weaker capping in version compared to Thursday, but there is less wind aloft on Sunday compared to Thursday, so we won’t need as much protection. There is more east wind on the east end the course but there may be less west flow pushing through on the west end of the course. Windy seems to think there will be more wind out near the beaches compared to the mountains. Bates may work from early afternoon through mid-afternoon.
Sunday is a high-pressure day with a good to robust lapse rate, so don’t expect the mid-day thermals to be mellow, but with less wind than Thursday, hopefully it will less bumpy?
Not a record setting day, but perhaps a good day start from SB with a westbound leg then go eastbound over Casitas Pass to tag Twin Peaks or the Topa Bluffs and then back westbound over Casitas Pass to Carpinteria or Summerland, but expect a building headwind from the west coming over Casitas Pass. Hopefully the late afternoon altitude will be better in Casitas Pass compared to Thursday. On Thursday we could only get into the upper 4s late in the day between White Ledge and East Divide. If we can get a thousand higher on the upwind westbound leg we should have better odds of getting up an over the high ground of Casitas Pass. I would note that my personal preference is to make an effort to go up and over rather than down and around. If I can’t get over I’ll turn around and fly out to Lake Casitas or back to Ojai. It is common that there is more west wind in the throat of the pass compared to up on the back ridge. The last 2 pilots who recently tried the low upwind route westbound through the throat of Casitas Pass late in the day came up short.
Also note that it is generically much easier going eastbound late in the day compared to westbound for various reasons. Going eastbound is typically downwind and you can come in low on sunny faces and surf up. Going westbound is typically upwind into sinky shade so you can’t come in low and surf up, you need to power around the corners. Also note that going westbound from White Ledge to East Divide is an uphill move away from retrievable LZs
Somewhat of an odd day in that Windy thinks there will be more west wind toward Carpinteria and through Casitas Pass comparted to further west in Santa Barbara?
As with Thursday, the overnight wind should help minimize the morning inversion so it should be launchable early. On Thursday the lower launches were working earlier than EJ, but once EJ turned on the altitudes were better up high over the back ridge compared to the front points. The front points did work but I think Thursday was a better day to stay high. Sunday has some similarities to Thursday, but we should have plenty of course markers to show where and what is working.
Monday and Tuesday also look promising with Tuesday maybe being better than Monday, but the course eastbound continues to be limited so out and back?
The winds aloft forecast for SBA is calling for Light and Variable up through 6K this morning, but it is still blowing stiff across the ridge line from the NW. The north wind inhibited the morning inversion, so it is already warmer in the foothills compared to the ridgeline. From a thermal perspective we should be able to launch early, but if you want to get off at EJ rather than the lower launches you will need to wait for the north wind to block (which I expect it will). On Thursday it was launchable earlier down lower and by 10:30 up at ridgeline (EJ). Thursday had less wind OTB at dawn but more wind in the forecast. Thursday’s temperature profile was similar to what we are seeing this morning.
Our local ocean is calm at dawn out through mid-channel, but it is currently blowing stiff from the NE at Anacapa Island and stiff from the NW around Point Conception.
__________________________________
Saturday night look at Sunday 2/21/2021
Expect Sunday to be somewhat similar to Thursday with some variation. The offshore Santa Anna drainage down the Santa Clara river is more pronounced and persistent than it was on Thursday, so we are course limited eastbound. You might be able to reach the Topa Bluffs, but Santa Paula Ridge looks iffy and it looks like a day to avoid the Santa Clara River.
Sunday’s lapse rate is looking a little stronger compared to Thursday. Surface temps are forecasted to be 70ish in SB and low 70s in Ojai while the 6K temp is forecasted to be in the low 40s, so a tad warmer on the surface and a tad cooler at 6K. On paper the altitude looks a bit better, but we got to 6K in SB on Thursday, which was better than the forecast, so I suspect Sunday’s altitude in SB will be similar to Thursday? The altitude in Ojai also looks a better on Sunday, perhaps 7Kish? We were only getting to 6K in Ojai on Thursday. On Thursday the lapse rate faded some in the afternoon as the upper atmosphere warmed, but on Sunday there is less warming of the upper air and the lapse rate holds up better, but it is typical in SB to get higher late morning through mid-day compared to later in the day. I suspect the altitude I Ojai will be good late in the day.
Sunday has a much weaker capping in version compared to Thursday, but there is less wind aloft on Sunday compared to Thursday, so we won’t need as much protection. There is more east wind on the east end the course but there may be less west flow pushing through on the west end of the course. Windy seems to think there will be more wind out near the beaches compared to the mountains. Bates may work from early afternoon through mid-afternoon.
Sunday is a high-pressure day with a good to robust lapse rate, so don’t expect the mid-day thermals to be mellow, but with less wind than Thursday, hopefully it will less bumpy?
Not a record setting day, but perhaps a good day start from SB with a westbound leg then go eastbound over Casitas Pass to tag Twin Peaks or the Topa Bluffs and then back westbound over Casitas Pass to Carpinteria or Summerland, but expect a building headwind from the west coming over Casitas Pass. Hopefully the late afternoon altitude will be better in Casitas Pass compared to Thursday. On Thursday we could only get into the upper 4s late in the day between White Ledge and East Divide. If we can get a thousand higher on the upwind westbound leg we should have better odds of getting up an over the high ground of Casitas Pass. I would note that my personal preference is to make an effort to go up and over rather than down and around. If I can’t get over I’ll turn around and fly out to Lake Casitas or back to Ojai. It is common that there is more west wind in the throat of the pass compared to up on the back ridge. The last 2 pilots who recently tried the low upwind route westbound through the throat of Casitas Pass late in the day came up short.
Also note that it is generically much easier going eastbound late in the day compared to westbound for various reasons. Going eastbound is typically downwind and you can come in low on sunny faces and surf up. Going westbound is typically upwind into sinky shade so you can’t come in low and surf up, you need to power around the corners. Also note that going westbound from White Ledge to East Divide is an uphill move away from retrievable LZs
Somewhat of an odd day in that Windy thinks there will be more west wind toward Carpinteria and through Casitas Pass comparted to further west in Santa Barbara?
As with Thursday, the overnight wind should help minimize the morning inversion so it should be launchable early. On Thursday the lower launches were working earlier than EJ, but once EJ turned on the altitudes were better up high over the back ridge compared to the front points. The front points did work but I think Thursday was a better day to stay high. Sunday has some similarities to Thursday, but we should have plenty of course markers to show where and what is working.
Monday and Tuesday also look promising with Tuesday maybe being better than Monday, but the course eastbound continues to be limited so out and back?