Halloween Treats
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:41 pmSee Flight Reports in Reply's below for:
[Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday]
No Flight Reports from Monday
Friday Reflections: Well… the week didn’t play out as forecasted by the various models, but it appears that for the most part conditions were better than anticipated with some exceptions. It looked appetizing from my vantage in Carpinteria. The wind would cycle from lull to a healthy stir... drawn by fat thermals occasionally letting loose?
60-80ish trick or treaters at Vallecito Club on Tuesday night. Ran out of candy for the first time and had to make a store run to reload.
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Monday Look at the All Saints workweek:
Thickening marine layer with a pronounced inversion above, but there is a good lapse rate below the inversion on Monday and a strong lapse rate on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Any heating on Tuesday should result in rising air, but there might be some drizzle Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the top of the lift goes above ridgeline, but cloudbase looks lower, maybe 2K in the morning rising above 3K in the afternoon as the day dries some.
The Training Hill might light off if it gets even just a little bit of heating, so Chad’s distance record (to Parma?) could fall, but note that even though thermals over the T-Hill might go above 3K, south of the freeway you are legally obligated to stay below 1500 feet MSL to avoid killing 50 airline passengers on an instrument approach to SBA.
The best lapse rate looks like Tuesday, but Wednesday looks good also. The top of the lift Wednesday doesn’t go as high, but the cloudbase limitation looks similar.
For Tuesday and Wednesday the NAM forecast soundings are calling for light (3 to 6) local flow from the SE at cloudbase, but down lower it might be more from the SW? The marine forecast is calling for flow from the SW in the Channel. If so, the local cliffs might work. Low tide is 2 PM on Tuesday, which coincides with the peak heating and the best lapse rate. The lapse rate fades at the end of the day.
By Thursday the flow is more from the west. The lapse rate is weaker, and the clouds are thicker, so… Thursday isn’t looking so good right now, but confidence in the forecast 3 days out is not high.
These deep marine days are tricky. Just a tiny bit of heating can be the difference between a sledder or fat smooth weak lift. If you wait for it to clear, then it will be ODed by the time you get to launch. The soaring window can be short. Looks like the best times are noon to 2 PM on Tuesday and Wednesday.
If you are sitting at the Skyport, then you might be a few hundred higher than cloudbase and not be able to see what’s going on. The Bypass or the Rock might be good calls? The Skyport is the easier launch if cloudbase is high enough or you are ok launching a few hundred above cloudbase and you have a spotter below to relay what’s going on.
If you don’t like bumpy air, fly on cloudy days without much wind. The clouds diffuse the heating which results in fat smooth thermals. We don’t need full sun to make it work on Tuesday and Wednesday, just some thinning to permit a little heating.
Also note that strong lift yields good climb rates, but often poor glides because what goes up must come down. Sometimes you can get better glides on days where the lift is weak but goes high. Weak life can also result in weaker sink on glide.
Since most pilots will be at Plaskett Creek, we don’t need to discuss the forecasted cold front and potential rain this coming weekend?
[Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday]
No Flight Reports from Monday
Friday Reflections: Well… the week didn’t play out as forecasted by the various models, but it appears that for the most part conditions were better than anticipated with some exceptions. It looked appetizing from my vantage in Carpinteria. The wind would cycle from lull to a healthy stir... drawn by fat thermals occasionally letting loose?
60-80ish trick or treaters at Vallecito Club on Tuesday night. Ran out of candy for the first time and had to make a store run to reload.
______________________________________
Monday Look at the All Saints workweek:
Thickening marine layer with a pronounced inversion above, but there is a good lapse rate below the inversion on Monday and a strong lapse rate on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Any heating on Tuesday should result in rising air, but there might be some drizzle Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the top of the lift goes above ridgeline, but cloudbase looks lower, maybe 2K in the morning rising above 3K in the afternoon as the day dries some.
The Training Hill might light off if it gets even just a little bit of heating, so Chad’s distance record (to Parma?) could fall, but note that even though thermals over the T-Hill might go above 3K, south of the freeway you are legally obligated to stay below 1500 feet MSL to avoid killing 50 airline passengers on an instrument approach to SBA.
The best lapse rate looks like Tuesday, but Wednesday looks good also. The top of the lift Wednesday doesn’t go as high, but the cloudbase limitation looks similar.
For Tuesday and Wednesday the NAM forecast soundings are calling for light (3 to 6) local flow from the SE at cloudbase, but down lower it might be more from the SW? The marine forecast is calling for flow from the SW in the Channel. If so, the local cliffs might work. Low tide is 2 PM on Tuesday, which coincides with the peak heating and the best lapse rate. The lapse rate fades at the end of the day.
By Thursday the flow is more from the west. The lapse rate is weaker, and the clouds are thicker, so… Thursday isn’t looking so good right now, but confidence in the forecast 3 days out is not high.
These deep marine days are tricky. Just a tiny bit of heating can be the difference between a sledder or fat smooth weak lift. If you wait for it to clear, then it will be ODed by the time you get to launch. The soaring window can be short. Looks like the best times are noon to 2 PM on Tuesday and Wednesday.
If you are sitting at the Skyport, then you might be a few hundred higher than cloudbase and not be able to see what’s going on. The Bypass or the Rock might be good calls? The Skyport is the easier launch if cloudbase is high enough or you are ok launching a few hundred above cloudbase and you have a spotter below to relay what’s going on.
If you don’t like bumpy air, fly on cloudy days without much wind. The clouds diffuse the heating which results in fat smooth thermals. We don’t need full sun to make it work on Tuesday and Wednesday, just some thinning to permit a little heating.
Also note that strong lift yields good climb rates, but often poor glides because what goes up must come down. Sometimes you can get better glides on days where the lift is weak but goes high. Weak life can also result in weaker sink on glide.
Since most pilots will be at Plaskett Creek, we don’t need to discuss the forecasted cold front and potential rain this coming weekend?