Last Weekend in October 2017
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:37 amSee Flight Reports in Reply's below for:
[Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday]
_____________________
Saturday Morning 10:30 Update:
Recommend flying Pine today (Saturday) and Sunday, even if it is a 2nd round flight late in the day…
As per the forecast discussion, and looking out the window… the offshore trends did not materialize, and it is trending more onshore, so… there is widespread stratus penetrating in from the coast, but the marine layer is low, below 1K, so there might be some protection behind the Riviera. I’m looking out my window in Carpinteria and it is trying to clear, but we were in a lightbulb until 10 am.
The lapse rate above the marine air is good. You might be able to stay above it launching from EJ and clinging to the high points, but I think it unlikely you can claw past Castle Ridge to the higher terrain east of Powerline Ridge this weekend?
The valley floor at Pine is 4K on the south side, well above any marine air. The base wind is light and decreasing with altitude up through 9K, maybe mid-single digits at Pine’s 7K south facing launch then almost calm above that.
The light base wind starts out from the east early, then dies to almost zero mid-day before clocking around to trickle in from the west late in the day.
This is the end of October, not July, so it should be ok for P2 pilots, but the lapse rate is robust so there will be local draw feeding the big organized thermals. Local draw can be significantly stronger than the base wind, so the P2 pilots should have someone eye on them to monitor their options.
Top of the lift looks like 9K on Saturday, perhaps not enough to clear the front range on glide, but likely enough to reach Rose Valley or for the XC pilots possibly committing to the Watershed Divide?
Sunday does not have the kink in the temperature profile at 9K, but the lapse rate is not as robust. Pine is likely still the best call on Sunday?
You can launch late at Pine. It is reasonable to leave SB at Noon and still get to 9K (2K above launch) at Pine.
See also, comments in reply post below (from last night) about Pine Mountain
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3383#p9922
_____________________
Friday Morning look at the coming weather for the last weekend in October
The best day for mountain and XC flying looks like Saturday...
Friday looks inverted in Santa Barbara below 3K. There is also a little west wind pulling in between 3 and 5K, not a lot, about 10 knots, but enough to scatter any weak thermals? The coastal cliffs might work. Friday looks like the best day for the coastal cliffs.
Ojai looks much better than SB on Friday with no inversion and a good lapse rate. No inversion due to light flow from the east early, but clocking around to come onshore from the west later in the day (today). Early launches might be from Nordhoff (east facing), but it should block at Chiefs launch by early afternoon. Good altitude should make going westbound over Casitas Pass easy, but you might want to turn back eastbound before plugging too far into the on-shore flow west of Casitas Pass.
Too much Santa Anna downriver flow from the east to launch from Fillmore on Friday, but you might be able to tag a convergence late in the day. Fillmore has a strong lapse rate early, fading a tad later, but still good. It is forecast to be east all day, but only light east late in the afternoon
Best bet on Friday is to launch from Ojai, fly west over Casitas Pass to Noon or Powerline Ridge, then turn and go east to the convergence line in Fillmore.
On Saturday, Ojai still looks like a better call, but Santa Barbara is looking better than Friday. The SB lapse rate is weak, but not inverted by the afternoon. The midlevel flow starts out light from the southeast (EJ Launch), then clocks around to come from the SW in the afternoon below ridge line and from the NW above ridgeline, but much lighter than Friday, so it might work good enough to claw past Castle Ridge? The lapse rate and altitude will get better east of Powerline Ridge.
Ojai has a strong lapse rate on Saturday and light flow from the east all day, but very light by the end of the day. Fillmore is also east all day, and lighter at the end of the day, but stronger than Friday. Fillmore is 10 knots from the east early in the afternoon and mid-single digits late in the day, so it is likely safe to venture into the river.
Best option on Saturday is to launch from Nordhoff early and go downwind westbound over Casitas Pass, then continue pushing westbound into the light headwind through Santa Barbara, then turn before it gets too late and return eastbound toward Fillmore. The course from Ojai will likely be time limited, so launch early and go fast. If you launch from SB on Saturday, prudent strategy might be less racy and more conservative early. Try to hold the high ground westbound with a light tailwind early, then turn come back eastbound in the lower level flow from the west after the inversion breaks.
By Sunday an inversion is building in Santa Barbara below 3K with flow from the SE. The low-level flow in SB clocks around to come on-shore from the SW, but the inversion strengthens.
Ojai again looks much better than SB on Sunday. Not as good of a lapse rate as Saturday, but still good enough to move around. Sunday flow through Ojai is light (mid-single digits) from the east early then clocking around to come in light from the west later in the day. Chiefs is likely the better launch option (compared to Nordhoff).
Sunday’s lapse rate in Fillmore looks good early with some downriver flow from the east, then fading in the afternoon as the cooler west flow pulls upriver, but the upriver flow is not very robust, only in the low to mid-single digits.
By Monday, everywhere is looking inverted, even Ojai. No baseball on Monday
Saturday looks like the best day with max potential from Ojai. Much nicer air than last Monday’s sharp edges. SB will be weaker and lower, but should work and might be good enough to get to Ojai?
If you want to fly from Ojai, you need to get a permit from the LPNF District Office https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/about-forest/districts/?cid=stelprdb5288687
[Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday]
_____________________
Saturday Morning 10:30 Update:
Recommend flying Pine today (Saturday) and Sunday, even if it is a 2nd round flight late in the day…
As per the forecast discussion, and looking out the window… the offshore trends did not materialize, and it is trending more onshore, so… there is widespread stratus penetrating in from the coast, but the marine layer is low, below 1K, so there might be some protection behind the Riviera. I’m looking out my window in Carpinteria and it is trying to clear, but we were in a lightbulb until 10 am.
The lapse rate above the marine air is good. You might be able to stay above it launching from EJ and clinging to the high points, but I think it unlikely you can claw past Castle Ridge to the higher terrain east of Powerline Ridge this weekend?
The valley floor at Pine is 4K on the south side, well above any marine air. The base wind is light and decreasing with altitude up through 9K, maybe mid-single digits at Pine’s 7K south facing launch then almost calm above that.
The light base wind starts out from the east early, then dies to almost zero mid-day before clocking around to trickle in from the west late in the day.
This is the end of October, not July, so it should be ok for P2 pilots, but the lapse rate is robust so there will be local draw feeding the big organized thermals. Local draw can be significantly stronger than the base wind, so the P2 pilots should have someone eye on them to monitor their options.
Top of the lift looks like 9K on Saturday, perhaps not enough to clear the front range on glide, but likely enough to reach Rose Valley or for the XC pilots possibly committing to the Watershed Divide?
Sunday does not have the kink in the temperature profile at 9K, but the lapse rate is not as robust. Pine is likely still the best call on Sunday?
You can launch late at Pine. It is reasonable to leave SB at Noon and still get to 9K (2K above launch) at Pine.
See also, comments in reply post below (from last night) about Pine Mountain
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3383#p9922
_____________________
Friday Morning look at the coming weather for the last weekend in October
The best day for mountain and XC flying looks like Saturday...
Friday looks inverted in Santa Barbara below 3K. There is also a little west wind pulling in between 3 and 5K, not a lot, about 10 knots, but enough to scatter any weak thermals? The coastal cliffs might work. Friday looks like the best day for the coastal cliffs.
Ojai looks much better than SB on Friday with no inversion and a good lapse rate. No inversion due to light flow from the east early, but clocking around to come onshore from the west later in the day (today). Early launches might be from Nordhoff (east facing), but it should block at Chiefs launch by early afternoon. Good altitude should make going westbound over Casitas Pass easy, but you might want to turn back eastbound before plugging too far into the on-shore flow west of Casitas Pass.
Too much Santa Anna downriver flow from the east to launch from Fillmore on Friday, but you might be able to tag a convergence late in the day. Fillmore has a strong lapse rate early, fading a tad later, but still good. It is forecast to be east all day, but only light east late in the afternoon
Best bet on Friday is to launch from Ojai, fly west over Casitas Pass to Noon or Powerline Ridge, then turn and go east to the convergence line in Fillmore.
On Saturday, Ojai still looks like a better call, but Santa Barbara is looking better than Friday. The SB lapse rate is weak, but not inverted by the afternoon. The midlevel flow starts out light from the southeast (EJ Launch), then clocks around to come from the SW in the afternoon below ridge line and from the NW above ridgeline, but much lighter than Friday, so it might work good enough to claw past Castle Ridge? The lapse rate and altitude will get better east of Powerline Ridge.
Ojai has a strong lapse rate on Saturday and light flow from the east all day, but very light by the end of the day. Fillmore is also east all day, and lighter at the end of the day, but stronger than Friday. Fillmore is 10 knots from the east early in the afternoon and mid-single digits late in the day, so it is likely safe to venture into the river.
Best option on Saturday is to launch from Nordhoff early and go downwind westbound over Casitas Pass, then continue pushing westbound into the light headwind through Santa Barbara, then turn before it gets too late and return eastbound toward Fillmore. The course from Ojai will likely be time limited, so launch early and go fast. If you launch from SB on Saturday, prudent strategy might be less racy and more conservative early. Try to hold the high ground westbound with a light tailwind early, then turn come back eastbound in the lower level flow from the west after the inversion breaks.
By Sunday an inversion is building in Santa Barbara below 3K with flow from the SE. The low-level flow in SB clocks around to come on-shore from the SW, but the inversion strengthens.
Ojai again looks much better than SB on Sunday. Not as good of a lapse rate as Saturday, but still good enough to move around. Sunday flow through Ojai is light (mid-single digits) from the east early then clocking around to come in light from the west later in the day. Chiefs is likely the better launch option (compared to Nordhoff).
Sunday’s lapse rate in Fillmore looks good early with some downriver flow from the east, then fading in the afternoon as the cooler west flow pulls upriver, but the upriver flow is not very robust, only in the low to mid-single digits.
By Monday, everywhere is looking inverted, even Ojai. No baseball on Monday
Saturday looks like the best day with max potential from Ojai. Much nicer air than last Monday’s sharp edges. SB will be weaker and lower, but should work and might be good enough to get to Ojai?
If you want to fly from Ojai, you need to get a permit from the LPNF District Office https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/about-forest/districts/?cid=stelprdb5288687