3rd October Weekend / dry front transition to Santa Anna
Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:51 amSee Daily post flight summaries for
[Thursday] [Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday] [Monday]
in reply post below
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Evolving Weather Conditions Prognosis for the next week [continued at...]
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Sunday Pre-Dawn Update (5 am)
The forecast continues to align with the model predictions with a high confidence over the next few days. As noted earlier, Ojai, with more protection from the ocean, has the better lapse rate so a flight back to Santa Barbara looks like a good call, but I haven’t read of anyone getting a permit for Sunday, so we will focus on Santa Barbara.
Sunday (SB) has less wind than yesterday (Saturday) morning, but still enough offshore influence to clear out the marine air this morning. There will still be a low morning surface inversion in the low spots due to the cold air settling and cold ground contact cooling, but the morning surface inversion appears shallow and should break as the day heats. By 11 am the west should start to pull in some at the lower altitudes but not strong. It appears light north above ridge line through the morning, then shifting to come from the NE (above ridgeline) in the afternoon., but not very strong. EJ launch might block, but the Skyport offers more protection.
The lapse rate between the Rock (1500 MSL) and the Skyport (3K) looks on par or better than the stretch above 3K early, so I don’t know that there is much of an advantage to launching higher other than EJ Launch being able to accommodate more pilots. The lapse rate later in the day improves some above ridgeline, so it might be nice late in the afternoon. The west flow down low doesn’t appear to pick up much, so it shouldn’t break up the thermals.
The Sunday lapse rate is OKish for SB, but not stellar. The afternoon 6K temperature is in the mid-60s and the surface temperature is in the high 80s, so a spread in the low to mid 20s…
The lapse rate on Monday and Tuesday looks much better, but the east wind on Monday will likely be an issue. From the east even below ridge line in SB. In the mid-teens above ridgeline in Santa Barbara and the high teens further east (Ojai) on Monday.
The east wind backs off some on Tuesday, but lapse rate is still strong. SB will see some onshore flow from the west down low but NE above ridge line. Ojai looks more manageable on Tuesday with booming lapse rate and single digit wind from the NE down lower, low double digits at ridgeline, and then falling back off to single digits up higher.
If I could fly Sunday, I’d launch in Ojai and fly back to SB. SB should work good also on Sunday, just not as robust as Ojai. Monday looks like it might be rideable for seasoned pilots, but you will need some bump tolerance. Tuesday looks better than Monday from a wind perspective, but it might be course limited by the lower level onshore flow? If you can stay high from Ojai on Tuesday, you might be able to avoid the lower level onshore flow from the WSW, perhaps by going OTB once you get to SB?
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Friday Morning Update
The lower level local lapse rate is booming today (below a sharp inversion above ridge line), but it looks like the mountains will be blown-out today from the NW. Yesterday I thought there might be a possibility the sharp inversion above the ridge line could delay the vertical mixing that will pull down the higher velocity upper level wind, but a look at this morning’s observations indicate it is better to skip the mountains. You might be able to launch a HG from the Alternator north side, but the sharp inversion will clamp max altitude so it doesn’t calculate well in a risk/reward evaluation.
Bates may have a window before it also blows out. The trick at Bates (for slower PGs) is to launch before the wind builds, then bench back to La Conchita. There will likely be a lot of wind landing in Ventura, but you have a lot of beach to back up and the ocean air at the beach is manageable from a turb perspective. If you go inland it can get pretty rocky. The tide will be going out after 10:30, but low tide isn’t until 5 PM. Ventura has plenty of beach even in high tide. The Rincon coast will have less beach, but enough in places, and the wind won’t be as strong as it is at the river mouth in Ventura.
The wind backs off some on Saturday, but the lapse rate also backs off.
SB should be flyable on Sunday, but a flight from Ojai back to SB looks much better.
The east Santa Anna wind is established on Monday. The lapse rate is good, but there might be too much east wind in Ojai for most pilots? Will need to check Sunday night to confirm. If the wind blocks in Ojai on Monday, it looks like it could be good.
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Midday Thursday / Early look at the coming weekend
Today, Thursday, looks like a good lapse rate but a bit windy from the NW west above ridge line, which might be good for a fast flight eastbound if your bump tolerance is up? Would likely need to use the lower launches or the north side of the Alternator? There is some wind in the channel, but mostly the western portion, so not sure if it will push through to Bates. It’s currently (noonish) blowing over 30 around Point Conception, half that mid-channel, and light from the SE at Bates.
Friday looks like increasing wind and a good lapse rate below 5K, but a strong capping inversion around 5K that might hold back the vertical mixing for awhile? And thus offer a possible early window? The channel is forecast to blow, so if you time it right you might be able to do Bates to Ventura?
Saturday starts a little postfrontal without the coveted cold air instability in SB, but the wind is forecasted to back off some in the afternoon. Might be a better day for the coastal sites?
Sunday is turning Santa Anna with a strong lapse rate and light wind from the east in Ojai. A weaker lapse rate and light wind from the west below ridge line in Santa Barbara. Sunday will likely work in SB, but the better call is to fly back to SB from Ojai? Someone would need to call the ranger station for a permit before end of business Friday to be able to drive up on Sunday.
http://scpa.info/lpnf for local navigation to https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/abo ... rdb5288687
[Thursday] [Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday] [Monday]
in reply post below
___________________________
Evolving Weather Conditions Prognosis for the next week [continued at...]
___________________________
Sunday Pre-Dawn Update (5 am)
The forecast continues to align with the model predictions with a high confidence over the next few days. As noted earlier, Ojai, with more protection from the ocean, has the better lapse rate so a flight back to Santa Barbara looks like a good call, but I haven’t read of anyone getting a permit for Sunday, so we will focus on Santa Barbara.
Sunday (SB) has less wind than yesterday (Saturday) morning, but still enough offshore influence to clear out the marine air this morning. There will still be a low morning surface inversion in the low spots due to the cold air settling and cold ground contact cooling, but the morning surface inversion appears shallow and should break as the day heats. By 11 am the west should start to pull in some at the lower altitudes but not strong. It appears light north above ridge line through the morning, then shifting to come from the NE (above ridgeline) in the afternoon., but not very strong. EJ launch might block, but the Skyport offers more protection.
The lapse rate between the Rock (1500 MSL) and the Skyport (3K) looks on par or better than the stretch above 3K early, so I don’t know that there is much of an advantage to launching higher other than EJ Launch being able to accommodate more pilots. The lapse rate later in the day improves some above ridgeline, so it might be nice late in the afternoon. The west flow down low doesn’t appear to pick up much, so it shouldn’t break up the thermals.
The Sunday lapse rate is OKish for SB, but not stellar. The afternoon 6K temperature is in the mid-60s and the surface temperature is in the high 80s, so a spread in the low to mid 20s…
The lapse rate on Monday and Tuesday looks much better, but the east wind on Monday will likely be an issue. From the east even below ridge line in SB. In the mid-teens above ridgeline in Santa Barbara and the high teens further east (Ojai) on Monday.
The east wind backs off some on Tuesday, but lapse rate is still strong. SB will see some onshore flow from the west down low but NE above ridge line. Ojai looks more manageable on Tuesday with booming lapse rate and single digit wind from the NE down lower, low double digits at ridgeline, and then falling back off to single digits up higher.
If I could fly Sunday, I’d launch in Ojai and fly back to SB. SB should work good also on Sunday, just not as robust as Ojai. Monday looks like it might be rideable for seasoned pilots, but you will need some bump tolerance. Tuesday looks better than Monday from a wind perspective, but it might be course limited by the lower level onshore flow? If you can stay high from Ojai on Tuesday, you might be able to avoid the lower level onshore flow from the WSW, perhaps by going OTB once you get to SB?
__________________________
Friday Morning Update
The lower level local lapse rate is booming today (below a sharp inversion above ridge line), but it looks like the mountains will be blown-out today from the NW. Yesterday I thought there might be a possibility the sharp inversion above the ridge line could delay the vertical mixing that will pull down the higher velocity upper level wind, but a look at this morning’s observations indicate it is better to skip the mountains. You might be able to launch a HG from the Alternator north side, but the sharp inversion will clamp max altitude so it doesn’t calculate well in a risk/reward evaluation.
Bates may have a window before it also blows out. The trick at Bates (for slower PGs) is to launch before the wind builds, then bench back to La Conchita. There will likely be a lot of wind landing in Ventura, but you have a lot of beach to back up and the ocean air at the beach is manageable from a turb perspective. If you go inland it can get pretty rocky. The tide will be going out after 10:30, but low tide isn’t until 5 PM. Ventura has plenty of beach even in high tide. The Rincon coast will have less beach, but enough in places, and the wind won’t be as strong as it is at the river mouth in Ventura.
The wind backs off some on Saturday, but the lapse rate also backs off.
SB should be flyable on Sunday, but a flight from Ojai back to SB looks much better.
The east Santa Anna wind is established on Monday. The lapse rate is good, but there might be too much east wind in Ojai for most pilots? Will need to check Sunday night to confirm. If the wind blocks in Ojai on Monday, it looks like it could be good.
___________________________________________________
Midday Thursday / Early look at the coming weekend
Today, Thursday, looks like a good lapse rate but a bit windy from the NW west above ridge line, which might be good for a fast flight eastbound if your bump tolerance is up? Would likely need to use the lower launches or the north side of the Alternator? There is some wind in the channel, but mostly the western portion, so not sure if it will push through to Bates. It’s currently (noonish) blowing over 30 around Point Conception, half that mid-channel, and light from the SE at Bates.
Friday looks like increasing wind and a good lapse rate below 5K, but a strong capping inversion around 5K that might hold back the vertical mixing for awhile? And thus offer a possible early window? The channel is forecast to blow, so if you time it right you might be able to do Bates to Ventura?
Saturday starts a little postfrontal without the coveted cold air instability in SB, but the wind is forecasted to back off some in the afternoon. Might be a better day for the coastal sites?
Sunday is turning Santa Anna with a strong lapse rate and light wind from the east in Ojai. A weaker lapse rate and light wind from the west below ridge line in Santa Barbara. Sunday will likely work in SB, but the better call is to fly back to SB from Ojai? Someone would need to call the ranger station for a permit before end of business Friday to be able to drive up on Sunday.
http://scpa.info/lpnf for local navigation to https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/abo ... rdb5288687
Thanks Mitch, Myles and Kelly