Mid October Weekend Outlook 10/13-16/2017
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:10 amPost Weekend Reports / See Daily summaries for
[Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday] [Monday]
in reply post below
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Monday Morning Update:
9:45 meet at Parma for an 11 am launch
Tom’s tracking page at:
https://share.delorme.com/TomTruax
Mitch’s tracking page at:
https://share.delorme.com/MitchRiley
As Marty says, we have to work with what mother gives us and not what we want.
Tuesday looks like the best lapse rate, but the west wind is a tad more and the high clouds thicker. Tuesday looks better up high, but it might be more of struggle out of the start gate down low? Tuesday could be more mellow with the high clouds providing even heating, but that could be offset by a little more west wind on the west end of the course.
The NAM forecast sounding is calling for a good lapse rate up high but weaker below ridgeline in SB. The wind is trying to switch and come from the west. It is still light from the east on the east end of the course, but forecasted to pull in from the west on the west end and not much wind through Ojai.
The big problem both days (Monday and Tuesday) is getting past Castle Ridge. If we can claw our way to the rising terrain at Power Line Ridge, we should reach Fillmore with good altitude and a light tailwind through Ojai.
Monday’s course looks time limited due to the later start time, slow going early, and then easy sailing but only a mild tailwind through Ojai. If we can get past Castle Ridge then it might be course limited at Fillmore due to light east flow down the river, but with a good lapse rate above, perhaps we can bridge south across the river from Santa Paula Peak on a convergence line?
On Tuesday, the west pushes all the way upriver. I’d like to fly both days, but can only muster one, so a bird in the hand?? Plan to be at Parma on Monday.
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Sunday Morning Pre-Dawn Update
Sunday is looking much better than Saturday due to the missing inversion. The flow above ridgeline is from the east, so Ojai should offer the most potential with an easy trip across Casitas Pass westbound, but Santa Barbara is looking good also. Not as robust as Ojai, and a bit windy from the east early, but the wind should back down and the max altitudes look impressive. SB is also looking good late in the day, so if you are in town, plan on being airborne late. If you are an XC pilot, it might be a good day to cross Hwy 154 and reach for Santa Ynez Peak, or consider going OTB and explore the back country a bit.
I’m a bit uncertain about Monday. My reading of the tea leaves doesn’t seem to align with the forecast discussion, which is calling for continued offshore flow through midweek then a cold front approaching with potential rain toward the end of the week? The NAM forecast profile seems to indicate a switch from east to west Monday with a good lapse rate above 6K. Earlier forecast were calling for more wind, but the wind expectations are now lower both for today’s east and tomorrow’s west.
The surface temperature forecast is calling for October hot, peaking today and then slowly tapering off. A few of the inland locations are predicting peak temperatures tomorrow (Monday) despite the retreat of the offshore flow because Monday starts out hot.
The NAM is showing potential for a smattering of high clouds tomorrow (Monday)? And significant mid-level clouds on Tuesday.
The reason we don’t think Fillmore offers the most potential westbound on Sunday is because the wind will likely be too much on launch early. Fillmore might work ok later in the day, but you won’t be able to get on course from Oat until late. There is a road up to a potential launch on the San Cayetano side of the Sespe that would work better early compared to Oat, but we would need someone tackle the permission task.
For Sunday, I’d recommend everyone go to Ojai if the logistics are in place to drive up, but if no one has a permit to get through the gate (the forest service office is close on the weekends) then that leaves the Nuthouse which is a brutal hike on a hot day and only suitable for robust die-hards, so… Most pilots will fly from Santa Barbara, which looks better later in the day.
I’m going to continue watching Monday and might have to skip school?
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Friday morning the 13th. Weekend overview.
The best play on Friday looks like a midday launch from Fillmore. Ojai looks OKish, but perhaps not worth logistic hassle? Santa Barbara looks like a struggle with a weak lapse rate down low and not much better up high. Not a lot of wind in SB. Light down low and a little north above the ridge line with a Sundowner event forecasted for this evening. I don’t normally like to get teased out to Fillmore for Santa Anna east wind because we don’t’ have a good lunch for it, but Friday looks more like a pre-Santa Anna Day? Just enough east flow to push the marine air out of the river, but not so much that it is too windy on lunch? Fillmore actually looks like it has the best local lapse rate on Friday, so if you can get off and connect across the Sespe you can likely get back to Lake Casitas or maybe Summerland?
Saturday and Sunday are solid Santa Anna East flow all along the range. Ojai looks like the best option. Fillmore will be too windy. On Saturday Santa Barbara looks flat with some wind from the east. A little better late in the day, so it might work ok going downwind from Ojai. The lapse rate in Ojai looks ok on Saturday, but only up to about 5K, and the wind might be a problem, gusting into the teens from the east above the ridge line. Saturday might be doable, but unless you have some bump tolerance and are aching to fly, I’d probably pass and wait until Sunday.
Sunday looks booming in Ojai with a good lapse rate early and less wind. The thermals look like they go high enough to get over Casitas Pass along the high route with some altitude to spare. 7K midday in Ojai and 8K later in the afternoon? A thousand lower going over Casitas Pass with a 6 to 8 knot tailwind.
Monday looks interesting for the hard-core pilots with some wind tolerance. The flow switches from offshore to onshore and the lapse rate is booming. Perhaps a bit weak in Santa Barbara below 3K, but the top of the lift looks like 8Kish? Trouble is the WSW wind. Manageable down low (but the lapse rate below 3K is also weak), the wind is forecasted to be in the mid to upper teens above ridge line, and over 20 late in the day. If you can manage to bounce downrange past Castle Ridge to the higher terrain behind Carpinteria, then you can likely get some bonus cushion altitude that equates to terrain clearance and opens up options that should enable fast times to Magic Mountain. A little less wind and a tad more altitude through Ojai and beyond. Fillmore is calling for base wind in the mid-teens, but the channeled air will likely be stronger, so it might be windy crossing canyon country. The flow is mostly from the west with a little SW down low and NW up higher. A little push from the north is likely good for grossing canyon country but the clock might be short? A big challenge on Monday is getting up and on course from SB. If you can get past Summerland, then the next real obstacle is east of Hwy 5.
[Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday] [Monday]
in reply post below
___________________________
Monday Morning Update:
9:45 meet at Parma for an 11 am launch
Tom’s tracking page at:
https://share.delorme.com/TomTruax
Mitch’s tracking page at:
https://share.delorme.com/MitchRiley
As Marty says, we have to work with what mother gives us and not what we want.
Tuesday looks like the best lapse rate, but the west wind is a tad more and the high clouds thicker. Tuesday looks better up high, but it might be more of struggle out of the start gate down low? Tuesday could be more mellow with the high clouds providing even heating, but that could be offset by a little more west wind on the west end of the course.
The NAM forecast sounding is calling for a good lapse rate up high but weaker below ridgeline in SB. The wind is trying to switch and come from the west. It is still light from the east on the east end of the course, but forecasted to pull in from the west on the west end and not much wind through Ojai.
The big problem both days (Monday and Tuesday) is getting past Castle Ridge. If we can claw our way to the rising terrain at Power Line Ridge, we should reach Fillmore with good altitude and a light tailwind through Ojai.
Monday’s course looks time limited due to the later start time, slow going early, and then easy sailing but only a mild tailwind through Ojai. If we can get past Castle Ridge then it might be course limited at Fillmore due to light east flow down the river, but with a good lapse rate above, perhaps we can bridge south across the river from Santa Paula Peak on a convergence line?
On Tuesday, the west pushes all the way upriver. I’d like to fly both days, but can only muster one, so a bird in the hand?? Plan to be at Parma on Monday.
_________________________________
Sunday Morning Pre-Dawn Update
Sunday is looking much better than Saturday due to the missing inversion. The flow above ridgeline is from the east, so Ojai should offer the most potential with an easy trip across Casitas Pass westbound, but Santa Barbara is looking good also. Not as robust as Ojai, and a bit windy from the east early, but the wind should back down and the max altitudes look impressive. SB is also looking good late in the day, so if you are in town, plan on being airborne late. If you are an XC pilot, it might be a good day to cross Hwy 154 and reach for Santa Ynez Peak, or consider going OTB and explore the back country a bit.
I’m a bit uncertain about Monday. My reading of the tea leaves doesn’t seem to align with the forecast discussion, which is calling for continued offshore flow through midweek then a cold front approaching with potential rain toward the end of the week? The NAM forecast profile seems to indicate a switch from east to west Monday with a good lapse rate above 6K. Earlier forecast were calling for more wind, but the wind expectations are now lower both for today’s east and tomorrow’s west.
The surface temperature forecast is calling for October hot, peaking today and then slowly tapering off. A few of the inland locations are predicting peak temperatures tomorrow (Monday) despite the retreat of the offshore flow because Monday starts out hot.
The NAM is showing potential for a smattering of high clouds tomorrow (Monday)? And significant mid-level clouds on Tuesday.
The reason we don’t think Fillmore offers the most potential westbound on Sunday is because the wind will likely be too much on launch early. Fillmore might work ok later in the day, but you won’t be able to get on course from Oat until late. There is a road up to a potential launch on the San Cayetano side of the Sespe that would work better early compared to Oat, but we would need someone tackle the permission task.
For Sunday, I’d recommend everyone go to Ojai if the logistics are in place to drive up, but if no one has a permit to get through the gate (the forest service office is close on the weekends) then that leaves the Nuthouse which is a brutal hike on a hot day and only suitable for robust die-hards, so… Most pilots will fly from Santa Barbara, which looks better later in the day.
I’m going to continue watching Monday and might have to skip school?
_______________________________________
Friday morning the 13th. Weekend overview.
The best play on Friday looks like a midday launch from Fillmore. Ojai looks OKish, but perhaps not worth logistic hassle? Santa Barbara looks like a struggle with a weak lapse rate down low and not much better up high. Not a lot of wind in SB. Light down low and a little north above the ridge line with a Sundowner event forecasted for this evening. I don’t normally like to get teased out to Fillmore for Santa Anna east wind because we don’t’ have a good lunch for it, but Friday looks more like a pre-Santa Anna Day? Just enough east flow to push the marine air out of the river, but not so much that it is too windy on lunch? Fillmore actually looks like it has the best local lapse rate on Friday, so if you can get off and connect across the Sespe you can likely get back to Lake Casitas or maybe Summerland?
Saturday and Sunday are solid Santa Anna East flow all along the range. Ojai looks like the best option. Fillmore will be too windy. On Saturday Santa Barbara looks flat with some wind from the east. A little better late in the day, so it might work ok going downwind from Ojai. The lapse rate in Ojai looks ok on Saturday, but only up to about 5K, and the wind might be a problem, gusting into the teens from the east above the ridge line. Saturday might be doable, but unless you have some bump tolerance and are aching to fly, I’d probably pass and wait until Sunday.
Sunday looks booming in Ojai with a good lapse rate early and less wind. The thermals look like they go high enough to get over Casitas Pass along the high route with some altitude to spare. 7K midday in Ojai and 8K later in the afternoon? A thousand lower going over Casitas Pass with a 6 to 8 knot tailwind.
Monday looks interesting for the hard-core pilots with some wind tolerance. The flow switches from offshore to onshore and the lapse rate is booming. Perhaps a bit weak in Santa Barbara below 3K, but the top of the lift looks like 8Kish? Trouble is the WSW wind. Manageable down low (but the lapse rate below 3K is also weak), the wind is forecasted to be in the mid to upper teens above ridge line, and over 20 late in the day. If you can manage to bounce downrange past Castle Ridge to the higher terrain behind Carpinteria, then you can likely get some bonus cushion altitude that equates to terrain clearance and opens up options that should enable fast times to Magic Mountain. A little less wind and a tad more altitude through Ojai and beyond. Fillmore is calling for base wind in the mid-teens, but the channeled air will likely be stronger, so it might be windy crossing canyon country. The flow is mostly from the west with a little SW down low and NW up higher. A little push from the north is likely good for grossing canyon country but the clock might be short? A big challenge on Monday is getting up and on course from SB. If you can get past Summerland, then the next real obstacle is east of Hwy 5.