Weekend Outlook Oct 6-9/2017 (Fri-Mon)

Weekend outlook / Friday morning perception
Friday looks like 6K plus in Ojai, but running into a headwind in the afternoon going toward SB. Likely too much offshore downriver flow to get to Fillmore? If I was flying Friday, I’d launch from Ojai and fly home to Carpinteria, but it looks like the Ojai valley will work good later in the day so it might be a nice day for sightseeing over the Topa Bluffs late in the afternoon? Going westbound over Casitas Pass could be marginal with 6K. It will likely work better earlier before the west flow tries to funnel through to Ojai?
Saturday is a switch day with building onshore flow. I’d recommend launching from SB if you are flying Saturday. If you can get past Castle Ridge, then you can likely reach Fillmore or a bit more, but it’s not a stellar day lapse rate wise, so you will need to work for it, but at least you will have a tailwind. Better not wait too late to get on course from SB as the building afternoon onshore flow will likely get the better of the weak thermals?
Sunday looks like it might be a good day to do something other than chase the mountain weather. The lapse rate tanks as the cool lower level onshore wind increases. The local cliff sites might work on Sunday.
Monday is looking pretty good in SB for lap racing with a good lapse rate up through 6K, and mild flow from the west, but a weak inland lapse rate doesn’t look encouraging for long distance flights.
Friday looks like 6K plus in Ojai, but running into a headwind in the afternoon going toward SB. Likely too much offshore downriver flow to get to Fillmore? If I was flying Friday, I’d launch from Ojai and fly home to Carpinteria, but it looks like the Ojai valley will work good later in the day so it might be a nice day for sightseeing over the Topa Bluffs late in the afternoon? Going westbound over Casitas Pass could be marginal with 6K. It will likely work better earlier before the west flow tries to funnel through to Ojai?
Saturday is a switch day with building onshore flow. I’d recommend launching from SB if you are flying Saturday. If you can get past Castle Ridge, then you can likely reach Fillmore or a bit more, but it’s not a stellar day lapse rate wise, so you will need to work for it, but at least you will have a tailwind. Better not wait too late to get on course from SB as the building afternoon onshore flow will likely get the better of the weak thermals?
Sunday looks like it might be a good day to do something other than chase the mountain weather. The lapse rate tanks as the cool lower level onshore wind increases. The local cliff sites might work on Sunday.
Monday is looking pretty good in SB for lap racing with a good lapse rate up through 6K, and mild flow from the west, but a weak inland lapse rate doesn’t look encouraging for long distance flights.