Mid-April Post Frontal Transition
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:53 pmTuesday afternoon look at the Post Frontal Transition
Today is a bit windy at altitude, and the lapse rate is only so-so down lower. It calms down overnight for a possible window Wednesday before building back stronger from the north on Thursday as it clocks around to come from the east (Santa Anna) on Friday.
Not a lot of instability associated with the broken cold front that passed through this morning. Wednesday starts out weak but the lapse rate improves during the day. The wind is also forecast to build some, but hopefully manageable. The timing could be important as to which gets here first, the better lapse rate or the west wind? We don’t block a west very good, so even a little west wind could be problematic and tear at the thermals if they are too weak.
Recommend launching high, Wednesday and not too early? The lapse rate is better up high, so there is an argument to try and go to OTB, but I think it might be better to attempt clawing through the low zone behind Summerland. If you can reach Powerline Ridge then the terrain starts to climb with more protection from the ocean. Should be a tailwind over Casitas Pass, if you can get that far. If you can, then conditions should be better through Ojai, but not stellar. With both the lapse rate and west flow increasing through the afternoon, there is potential to go past Fillmore if you can get past Summerland. The west wind pushes up the Santa Clara River, but not too strong.
There might be a low marine inversion on Wednesday, but no mid-level capping inversion. Coupled with a weak lapse rate, max altitudes will likely follow the terrain height. So… low behind Summerland, but better over Casitas Pass and through Ojai.
On Thursday, the lower level lapse rate looks good with a capping inversion around 4K in SB and 6K in Ojai. There is quite a bit of north wind above the inversion, perhaps too much for the mountains, but the inversion might limit the vertical mixing for a while and permit early low launches? It will likely blow too strong in the afternoon.
By Friday, the wind should clock around to come from the east as a moderate Santa Anna event on the east end of the course. Might be a good day for an out and return from the Nuthouse to SB and back. The inland temps should be quite hot yielding good late day conditions in the Ojai Valley, but likely too much Santa Anna east flow down the Santa Clara River to reach the bus stop in Fillmore? A good play might be to plan your route to be at the Topa Bluffs late in the day. Santa Barbara should be protected from the east flow below about 5K on Friday, but the lapse rate is weaker than Ojai. If you fly from the Nuthouse try to stay high on the westbound leg then lower on the eastbound return leg. Altitudes in Ojai look ok but not stellar, maybe 6Kish.
Today is a bit windy at altitude, and the lapse rate is only so-so down lower. It calms down overnight for a possible window Wednesday before building back stronger from the north on Thursday as it clocks around to come from the east (Santa Anna) on Friday.
Not a lot of instability associated with the broken cold front that passed through this morning. Wednesday starts out weak but the lapse rate improves during the day. The wind is also forecast to build some, but hopefully manageable. The timing could be important as to which gets here first, the better lapse rate or the west wind? We don’t block a west very good, so even a little west wind could be problematic and tear at the thermals if they are too weak.
Recommend launching high, Wednesday and not too early? The lapse rate is better up high, so there is an argument to try and go to OTB, but I think it might be better to attempt clawing through the low zone behind Summerland. If you can reach Powerline Ridge then the terrain starts to climb with more protection from the ocean. Should be a tailwind over Casitas Pass, if you can get that far. If you can, then conditions should be better through Ojai, but not stellar. With both the lapse rate and west flow increasing through the afternoon, there is potential to go past Fillmore if you can get past Summerland. The west wind pushes up the Santa Clara River, but not too strong.
There might be a low marine inversion on Wednesday, but no mid-level capping inversion. Coupled with a weak lapse rate, max altitudes will likely follow the terrain height. So… low behind Summerland, but better over Casitas Pass and through Ojai.
On Thursday, the lower level lapse rate looks good with a capping inversion around 4K in SB and 6K in Ojai. There is quite a bit of north wind above the inversion, perhaps too much for the mountains, but the inversion might limit the vertical mixing for a while and permit early low launches? It will likely blow too strong in the afternoon.
By Friday, the wind should clock around to come from the east as a moderate Santa Anna event on the east end of the course. Might be a good day for an out and return from the Nuthouse to SB and back. The inland temps should be quite hot yielding good late day conditions in the Ojai Valley, but likely too much Santa Anna east flow down the Santa Clara River to reach the bus stop in Fillmore? A good play might be to plan your route to be at the Topa Bluffs late in the day. Santa Barbara should be protected from the east flow below about 5K on Friday, but the lapse rate is weaker than Ojai. If you fly from the Nuthouse try to stay high on the westbound leg then lower on the eastbound return leg. Altitudes in Ojai look ok but not stellar, maybe 6Kish.